Will India Have To Navigate A Far More Complex Washington Between Trump And A Democrat-Controlled Congress?

 

 

New Delhi: US Vice President J.D. Vance has squarely blamed the war in Iran for the Republican rout in the midterm elections while President Donald Trump has grudgingly conceded the Iran conflict may have played a role.

Amid this soul-searching within the Trump administration over its foreign policy, the reality is that Washington now has two disparate power centres: Trump, who has been volatile and unpredictable so far in his second term, and a Democrat-controlled Congress that will seek to rein him in.

A key challenge for India will be navigating Washington's corridors of power, which may have just become even more unpredictable. The Congress and the Trump administration are likely to pull in opposite directions on key domestic and foreign policies.

 

For India, the midterm elections come at a time when the US and India have made efforts to reduce tensions. The Democrats clinched a majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives.

The immediate challenge to India-US ties could be renewed US opposition to India buying Russian oil and a new urgency in concluding a trade deal, which officials on both sides have said is nearly done.

"Indian policymakers will have to negotiate between the White House and the democratically controlled Senate and House of Representatives, leading to continuous battles on various issues, " said Anil Wadhwa, a former diplomat and ambassador. Still, a Democrat controlled Congress will be sympathetic to India, with many Democrats having called out the Trump administration over the past year for harming India-US ties through tariffs, sanctions, and a China and Pakistan policy that New Delhi views with suspicion.

 

Analysts also believe that Trump might focus on building his legacy in foreign policy in the remaining two years of his presidency. The question is whether the midterm elections will lead to a conciliatory or an aggressive Trump.

"He (Trump) will be heavily constrained on the domestic front going forward with the kind of results that have come but on foreign policy he still retains quite a bit of leverage as presidents always do, " said Professor Harsh V. Pant, Vice President at Observer Research Foundation.

"So there is a challenge there that he may become more escalatory on the foreign policy front. Broadly, foreign policy will see his impact because he might feel that's the only domain left for him to reclaim some space for himself and his legacy.”

 

A clear triumph for Trump would be to end the war in Ukraine and extricate the US from the Iran conflict, both challenges he has so far been unable to resolve. His promise to end wars and then entering one with Iran proved electorally costly for the Republican Party, which was routed in the midterm elections.

A lower-hanging fruit for Trump would be to clinch the India-US trade deal, opening up one of the largest economies and its market for US businesses. For India, this could translate into a more conciliatory Trump desperate for a foreign trade policy win or an aggressive Trump who will pressure India to further open up markets.

Still, India has already shown that it cannot be browbeaten into a trade deal amid red lines on protecting agriculture from US businesses. Indian negotiators are likely to continue to play hardball, now further strengthened by the notion of a weakened Trump who will face far greater oversight from Democrats in the US Congress. Officials on both sides have said the two countries are just a breath away from concluding the deal. It remains to be seen how fast the deal is clinched.

 

What power does Trump have after the midterm elections?

American voters signalled that they are unhappy with the Trump presidency as the Iran conflict and uncertain trade and tariff policies, including a trade war with Canada, pushed up the cost of oil, groceries and other products.

While presidents often fare poorly in midterm elections, American media outlets noted that the scale of the losses was unprecedented.

As President, he still has executive powers and has already indicated he will use veto powers, which are the powers to block legislation passed by the US Congress. In his first term as President, Trump used his veto power to strike down a War Powers Resolution in 2019 to end US military assistance to Saudi Arabia in Yemen. He had similarly vetoed a resolution in Congress seeking to limit his military authority to wage war against Iran in 2020. He did not go to war at the time.

 

For Congress to override a presidential veto, it requires a two-thirds majority vote, which the Democrats lack even after their sweep. But what he will face is greater oversight from Congress and he will likely find it tougher to extract funds, if the Democrats are disinclined, for any new adventurism, whether in the war in Iran or Ukraine.

He is also likely to face greater pushback on his tariff policy even though he has already exhibited an effective use of executive powers to continue with his tariff policy. Even US military aid to Israel, which still has bipartisan support, may face greater criticism from the progressive elements in the Democratic Party, like Michigan senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed.

 

For now, Trump has struck a conciliatory note, saying he will work with the Democratic Congress but told the Wall Street Journal that the war on Iran and tariff policies were only a small part of the Republican rout.

 

What does this all mean for India?

Asia will have an immediate opportunity to see whether Trump's Asia policy goes through any change. He will likely be in the Philippines for the 49th ASEAN Summit in the coming week from November 16–18 and will subsequently travel for the APEC China 2026 Summit from November 18–19.

India will be closely watching these visits for signs of any change in Trump's policy toward Asia and in particular China. For years a central premise of US' relations with India was that it could help balance the rise of China. But under Trump, Washington has directly reached out to Beijing to manage ties instead of solely through its allies and partners in Asia amid an assessment that Trump's focus remains on the Western Hemisphere.

Many within his own party and the Democratic Party have been uneasy with how Trump has approached China.

The sentiment in New Delhi that India will have to wait out the remainder of the Trump years for a more stable relationship has not dissipated with the midterm election results and a Democrat- dominated Congress.

 

On issues like immigration, there is unlikely to be a reprieve for India visa seekers or the H1-B programme. The Trump administration has been tightening eligibility to make it more difficult for companies to hire Indian and other foreign workers.

"The immigration-related policies and curbs on H1-B visas will get limited reprieve due to bipartisan consensus against immigration into the US, " said Wadhwa. "Defence ties may be unaffected, but China will gain ascendancy in these circumstances and India will lose out in US attention to India as a counterweight or as an important component of the Quad since that will lose priority. This development (midterm election results) is a mixed bag for India.”

 

Washington has made efforts in the last few weeks to improve ties with New Delhi. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited India in October to improve strained ties. A key area to watch out would be on whether exemptions for India in buying Russian oil continue or whether Congress and Trump end up on the same page if there is a decision to increase pressure on Russia.

Trump had waived sanctions under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which mandates up to 100 per cent tariffs on India and other top buyers of Russian oil. This remains a shadow over India-US ties.

 

Still, Pant feels that ties with India might actually be a meeting ground between Trump and Democrats, given India-US ties have bipartisan support and for the most part do not attract any controversies.

"One of the areas that he may think of getting a quick victory is in rebuilding ties with India and finalising the trade deal, " said Pane. "And because Democrats are not fundamentally opposed to India and have, over the last few decades, been supportive of India, that might be one area that brings the White House and Congress together."