India’s Trade Ties With Turkey, Azerbaijan Set To Nosedive

 

 

New Delhi : India’s trade ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan are likely to be affected on account of these two countries coming out in support of Pakistan during the recent Indo-Pak standoff that had followed the Pahalgam militant attack and subsequent Operation Sindoor. The two countries also condemned India after the strikes on terror camps in Pakistan. A call to boycott the two destinations and their goods has been aired from various parts of the country. The Azerbaijani government had raised concerns about ‘potential civilian casualties’ and had emphasized the need for diplomatic resolution to the military escalation.

 

The Turkish Foreign Ministry went a step further labeling the Indian strikes ‘provocative’ and warning that they could ‘escalate regional tensions into a wider conflict’. During the military operations India discovered that Turkish manufactured AsisguardSongar drones were being used by Pakistan. “Our integrated air defence (AD) systems stood like a wall and they (Pakistan) could not breach it. Whether it's a Turkish drone or anything else, it fails in front of the technology of India," said Director General of Air Operations Awadhesh Kumar Bharti in a media briefing. Economist and geopolitical commentator SharadKohli told ETV Bharat, “The criticism from Turkey and Azerbaijan is diplomatically disappointing but not surprising given their growing closeness to Pakistan. Turkey has long aspired to be a leader of the Muslim world and its backing of Pakistan fits that agenda. Azerbaijan, closely aligned with Turkey through the 'One Nation, Two States' doctrine followed suit.”

 

He said that India doesn’t stand to lose much from a trade perspective as the two nations account for a small fraction of India’s global trade basket. However, their economies, especially sectors like Turkish stone and mining, marble exports, and Azerbaijan’s mineral oil and processing industries, could feel significant tremors if Indian traders pull the plug. “If Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) and allied groups formally initiate a boycott, it will not just be an economic move but also a symbolic geopolitical one,” Kohli added. He said that India may begin recalibrating its West Asia and Eurasia outreach engaging more deeply with nations like Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus which have frosty relations with Ankara and Baku.

 

“India will weigh long term strategic options beyond short term trade. This episode may accelerate India’s eastward tilt toward Indo Pacific coalitions and deepen its Israel-Armenia-Greece axis,” he said. Indian traders and online travel agencies have joined hands in taking a stand displaying economic nationalism. Platforms like EaseMyTrip and Ixigo have issued travel advisories urging Indian tourists to avoid Turkey and Azerbaijan. MakeMyTrip has removed all promotional offers and halted marketing for travel to both these countries. Meanwhile CAIT has scheduled a national conference in New Delhi to formalize a boycott of goods and services linked to the two countries. The trading community has already begun acting with major associations in Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan halting orders of Turkish marble, apples and processed foods.

 

India imports nearly $10 million worth of apples annually from Turkey along with marble, mineral oils, gold, chemicals, and textiles. “There’s no question of trading with nations that oppose India and support Pakistan. This is the moment for Indian traders to show unity and patriotism,” said CAIT’s Secretary General Praveen Khandelwal who is also the LokSabha member from ChandniChowk constituency. CAIT’s President B.C. Bhartia explained that India exports refined petroleum, motor vehicles, steel, pharmaceuticals and chemicals to Turkey. For Azerbaijan, the exports include tobacco, machinery, ceramic goods, and electronics.

 

Their imports mainly include mineral oil, chemicals and aluminium. “If Indian traders withdraw cooperation, it will hit their economies hard,” he said. For the year 2023-24 Indian exports to Turkey stood at $6.65 billion while the imports were at $3.78 billion. In the first 11 months of 2024-25 the figures stood at $5.2 billion and $2.84 billion respectively. The figure for Azerbaijan for 11 months in 2024-25 was $86.07 million for exports and $1.93 million for imports. It was down from $89.67 million in 2023-24, whereas the imports had gone up from $0.74 million. While the trade volumes are modest, the political implications of a freeze on trade are far greater.

 

The diplomatic strain is also impacting the people-to-people ties. Roughly 3,000 Indians reside in Turkey including more than 200 students while Azerbaijan is home to 1,500 Indians, many of whom are employed in trade or service industries. In 2023, around 3 lakh Indian tourists visited Turkey, attracted by its cultural heritage and Mediterranean beauty. Azerbaijan saw over 2 lakh Indian arrivals buoyed by e-visas, wedding tourism and the promotion of Baku as a luxury destination.

 

“Around 3 to 3.5 lakh Indians travel to Turkey every year with an average spend of about $1,000 per person. This translates into total tourism revenue of approximately Rs 3,000 to Rs 3,500 crores annually. While Indian tourists make up just about 1% of Turkey’s overall tourism, we must note that it has been growing at a significant rate of 15–20% annually. So if anyone stands to lose from this backlash, it's Turkey. Not only will they lose existing tourist volumes, but also the strong growth momentum from the Indian market,” Kohli said. Many Indian travel websites have started boycotting Turkey which could further impact the tourist inflow from India.

 

Turkey and Azerbaijan’s recent stand may reinforce India’s growing inclination to prioritise ties with countries that support its counter terror positions, especially in multilateral forums such as BRICS, G20, and the United Nations. India’s recent strategic agreements with Armenia, Turkey’s historic rival, may see new momentum. CAIT’s national conference that is scheduled to be held on Friday, will determine whether to suspend all import export trade with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Khandelwal summed up the prevailing sentiment, saying, “Trade with India is profitable for them. If they stand against us in global forums, they must be ready to pay the price. Indian traders will no longer allow anyone to benefit from our markets while aligning with our enemies.”