Trump's Gaza proposal has rattled the Middle East. More surprises are likely

 

President Trump has already stirred up the Middle East by suggesting a U.S. takeover of Gaza and the relocation of its 2 million Palestinian residents. More drama could soon be on the way as the U.S. president hints at — but hasn't spelled out — plans for other countries in the region that include Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran. In the vast stone courtyard at the 8th century Umayyad Mosque, Syrian lawyer Ahmed Kassab offers a message intended for Trump. "Syria is exhausted from 14 years of war. We don't want any more wars. We want peace.

 

We want to live," Kassab said. Like many Syrians, Kassab wants friendly relations between Syria and the U.S., putting an end to the decades of friction between Washington and the country once ruled by Bashar al-Assad and his father before him, Hafez al-Assad. Kassab says it's time for the U.S. to lift wide-ranging sanctions imposed during Syria's civil war, which ended with Assad's ouster in December. In a series of off-the-cuff remarks, Trump has been dropping clues about what he's likely to do in the Middle East, which is coping with the aftermath of several recent conflicts. But the lack of details, and Trump's unpredictable nature, make the comments hard to interpret. "There is a kind of a scramble to understand what Trump is going to do in the Middle East," said Paul Salem, a Beirut-based analyst with the Middle East Institute. "It's kind of jarring to see a message that says, 'Nothing's certain, and everything's on the table. Everything has to be renegotiated.' "

 

 

In Syria, Trump has said he intends to keep his distance. "We're not involved in Syria. Syria is its own mess. They've got enough messes over there. They don't need us involved," Trump said recently. Yet the U.S. still has around 2,000 troops in northeast Syria, where they guard against a resurgence of the Islamic State. In his first term, Trump wanted to withdraw the American forces after the Islamic State was defeated. But his advisers talked him out of it, arguing that remnants of the extremist group could sow more chaos if they were not kept in check. So far, Trump has been noncommittal, saying only that he's evaluating the situation. But if the president removes those forces, it's not clear whether Syria's new military would be able to contain the Islamic State. The Syrian army is still being cobbled from various armed factions and is still a work in progress.

 

Hussein Ibish, with the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said the small number of U.S. troops play a critical role. "You couldn't ask for a bigger bang for the buck," said Ibish. "It's small numbers, but the impact of their removal will be considerable, because there'll be a scramble for power" in Syria and neighboring Iraq. Those U.S. troops also work closely with Kurdish forces who are part of the Syrian Democratic Forces, or the SDF. The Kurds would feel extremely vulnerable if the Americans leave, Ibish added.

 

 

In contrast to Syria, Trump is eager to work closely with Saudi Arabia. His goal is clear: a three-way deal with Israel and Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic ties, while the U.S. strengthens economic links with the Saudis. "He will be very close to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries," said Salem, with the Middle East Institute. "He's a businessman. He's interested in investment, in technology and the energy markets." The Saudis are already floating the prospect of $600 billion worth of investments in the U.S. But Trump's pursuit of megadeals is likely to collide with the messy details of unresolved regional issues, like the establishment of a Palestinian state.

 

"The Saudis have made it very clear that the price [for diplomatic and business deals] has gone up, and they're talking about the creation of a Palestinian state or ironclad moves in that direction," said Ibish. Yet Israel's current government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, flatly opposes a Palestinian state. And tensions are still high as Israel and Hamas attempt to navigate a shaky ceasefire deal on Gaza. Trump is calling for the U.S. to take over Gaza, with its 2 million residents being located elsewhere in the region, possibly Egypt and Jordan. But those countries and other Arab states have emphatically rejected Trump's plan, as have the Palestinians. Jordan's King Abdullah met Trump at the White House on Tuesday and said he stressed "Jordan's steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank." In a social media post, he wrote, "This is the unified Arab position. Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation should be the priority for all."

 

 

Then there's Iran. Trump recently signed an executive order calling for "maximum pressure" on Tehran. That's the same approach Trump took throughout his first term, though he said he hopes he doesn't have to rely on pressure tactics to the same extent this time around. Iran has been weakened on several fronts. Israel battered Iran's proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran lost a key ally when Assad was ousted in Syria. And Israeli airstrikes inflicted serious damage to Iran's air defenses, making the country much more vulnerable in any future confrontation.

 

Eyal Hulata, a former national security adviser in Israel, said this is an opportune time for Trump to squeeze Iran hard until it makes major concessions on its nuclear program. "What is necessary is to reengage in a pressure campaign," said Hulata, who's currently based in Washington. "Iran needs to give away their nuclear ambitions for a very long period of time." However, Hussein Ibish said Iran may be willing to negotiate now. He suggested Trump make an offer to Iran along these lines: "You can have sanctions relief. You can have regime security for a time, certainly, if you just back off. Because if you sprint to a (nuclear) bomb, you're sprinting to disaster. We will destroy your nuclear facilities in a matter of a week." In his first term, Trump tried to reduce the U.S. footprint in the Middle East. Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden took a similar approach. Yet so far, all have found that turmoil in the Middle East keeps pulling them back in.