Bihar Poll Result Analysis - The Contributing Factors Behind NDA Sweep

 

 

Patna: The chief minister Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) sprang a surprise in the Bihar Assembly elections on Friday, notching one of its best ever performances and decimating the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) – led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in the state.

It was on the way to win 203 seats with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the largest party with 90 seats, Janata Dal United (JDU) at the second position with 85, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or LJP(R) following it with nine, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) or HAM(S) clinching five, and the Rashtriya Lok Marcha (RLM) bagging four.

 

In contrast, the Opposition INDIA was struggling to win 34 seats, with the RJD on the way to collect 24, while the Congress was on the path to clinch six seats. Among the rest, the CPIML got two, while the CPI(M) and IIP bagged one each.

Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM won five seats, while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was leading on one seat at the time of writing the report.

Such was the expanse of the NDA’s victory that the entire map of Bihar was painted in the colours light green, saffron, purple, navy blue and cerulean blue attributed to its constituents by the Election Commission (EC).

In comparison, the colours of the INDIA block were just a sprinkling of brown, light blue and some patches of red on the map.

 

The poll results highlighted that ‘brand Nitish’ has worked, and people still trusted his reputation of delivering on promises, in comparison to others who had no such track record, except on some rare occasions.

Nitish, who also happens to be the JDU national president, promised better law and order, roads, and schools during the 2005 polls and fulfilled them after coming to power. It catapulted him and the NDA to win 206 out of 243 seats in 2010.

In the 2010 Assembly poll, Nitish promised to improve the electricity supply situation and did so after emerging victorious.

 

He came up with 'seven resolves for a developed Bihar' in the run-up to the 2015 election, promising to provide tap water, toilets, electricity connections, pucca lanes and drains to every household, economic empowerment of the youth and 35 per cent reservation to women in government jobs – and kept each of them after winning.

Nitish promised to improve the quality of education, 10 lakh jobs and more employment in the 2020 polls, and kept them despite his party faring poorly and slipping to the third place with just 43 seats.

Cut to 2025. The chief minister promised 1 crore jobs. The voters found it more reliable than RJD leader Tejashwi Prasad Yadav’s promise to provide one government job to every family that has nobody working in the public sector.

There were other factors that worked for Nitish. He has no individual corruption charges, has meagre assets, is a frugal eater, and has always portrayed his concerns about the welfare and development of the people.

On the other hand, Tejashwi, his father, RJD president Lalu Prasad, mother and former chief minister Rabri Devi, as well as other members of the family, are accused and chargesheeted in several cases of corruption. Lalu was convicted in the infamous Fodder Scam cases and was granted bail after serving around half of his sentence in prison.

 

Nitish has never indulged in dynastic politics, a charge that is clearly visible with regard to the RJD first family, INDIA constituents, and even among some of the NDA partners. This has bolstered his image in the eyes of the people.

 

It is no secret that Nitish has worked wholeheartedly for the uplift of women and cultivated them as a constituency over the past two decades as a chief minister.

He started by providing 50 per cent reservation to women in panchayati raj institutions and local self-governance bodies – making Bihar the first one to do so in the country. He prioritised girls’ education, provided them with school uniforms, bicycles, scholarships, and money for purchasing sanitary napkins for school-going adolescent girls.

 

Nitish followed it up with 35 per cent horizontal reservation to women in government jobs.

The Jeevika scheme under the rural livelihoods scheme specially targeted women. It met with resounding success and has over 10.58 lakh self-help groups with 1.4 crore female members, who receive help in starting small ventures, businesses, and vocations.

 

The Jeevika Didis – as Jeevika members are popularly called – have become a major force in Bihar’s socio-political landscape, a significant part of the rural economy and one of the largest voting blocs. The Opposition has always complained that they side with Nitish.

In fact, he implemented prohibition in the state at the request of the women. Though its success could be a subject of argument, it has checked public nuisance by drunk men and domestic violence to a considerable extent, making the women happier.

 

As the 2025 Assembly election approached, Nitish embarked on a sop-showering spree, impacting every section of society. Yet, some of them exclusively targeted the women, including increasing the widow pension from Rs 400 to Rs 1100, increasing the honorarium given to cooks engaged under the mid-day-meal scheme in government schools, ASHA (Accredited Social Health Activists) and Mamata workers, among others.

 

However, the biggest among them was Rs 10,000 to one woman from each family to start some employment or business, along with a promise to provide Rs 2 lakh more if they did well. Nitish made the announcement in the last week of August, and the scheme was quickly implemented within a month, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi digitally transferring the assistance amount to 75 lakh women in the first lot on September 26.

“The moment the Prime Minister pressed the button for the first time under the scheme and Rs 10,000 went to the accounts of beneficiary women, the NDA got the edge. The money was transferred to more women, and the number stood at 1.4 crore by the time the Assembly poll occurred,” BJP spokesperson and former MLA Prem Ranjan Patel told ETV Bharat.

 

The state witnessed a large number of women visiting the polling booths to cast a vote in the elections. In fact, their polling percentage surpassed that of the men in 37 out of 38 districts (Patna was an exception).

Over 71.8 per cent of women voters turned up at the booths to cast their votes in comparison to 62.9 per cent of men voters – the biggest ever gap of 8.9 per cent between the two genders – in Assembly elections since Independence. Their participation also led to an all-time high voter turnout of 67.14 per cent.

 

As huge crowds of women were witnessed at the polling booths – even in areas like Seemanchal (northeastern Bihar) where the Muslim population range from 40 to 68 per cent – experts and politics-watchers wondered whether it was an expression of happiness with the steps taken by Nitish, or a quest for change.

In Kishanganj district, where the minority population is around 68 per cent of the total population, the turnout of women voters was a record 88.57 per cent in comparison to 69.07 for men.

The poll results have proved that the women profusely blessed Nitish and the NDA government led by him. The alliance clinched 15 out of 24 seats in Seemanchal, indicating that Rs 10,000 and other sops were welcomed even by female voters among the minority community.

 

Elsewhere in Patna, Savitri Devi, who works as a domestic help, said: “I thought about Nitish when I voted, though the candidate in my area was from the BJP. He has done so much for people like us. One of my daughters has become a teacher in a government school in Muzaffarpur. People say he has become old, but then everybody does. It would have been treachery had I not voted for him.”

 

The NDA presented an example of how an alliance should work since January 2025. There was cohesion among the partners. They regularly held joint meetings at which the workers of different parties were repeatedly told that they would have to ensure votes for the candidates in their areas, irrespective of his or her party. It was drilled into their mindset that there were no differences at the ground level. This resulted in a smooth transfer of votes among the allies.

 

The better coordination and cohesion ensured that around 17 rebel candidates from different NDA partners withdrew their candidature and pledged to support the official candidates.

For example, the 28 seats that Union Chirag Paswan’s LJP(R) managed to contest were considered difficult ones and pocket boroughs of the RJD. But the smooth transfer of votes belonging to the allies saved the day. He was on the way to winning 19 seats.

Union Home Minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah took charge of strategy a couple of months ahead of the polls. In the run-up, he camped for several days in Patna, quietly planning for every seat in the state and ensuring its implementation.

Though the BJP ended with a better strike rate and more seats than the JDU, one thing is clear from the results: it cannot ignore Nitish in the coming days.

 

Meanwhile, Nitish took to the social media platform X after the counting of the votes entered its last phase in the evening. “The people of the state expressed their faith in our government by giving us a huge majority. I bow down to all honourable voters and express heartfelt gratitude and thanks to them. I salute and express heartfelt gratitude to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his assistance,” Nitish said. “The NDA has shown complete unity and achieved a huge majority. I thank all our partners – Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha for this. Bihar will progress further with your assistance and become one of the most developed states in the country,” Nitish added.

 

On the other hand, INDIA projected a disjointed look for the past several months. There was continuous friction and infighting among the allies, each of which wanted more for itself.

Seat distribution could not be properly done till the last day of nomination, and the result was friendly fights on several seats, while rebel candidates contested at a few others.

 

The Opposition bloc came up with a manifesto that was full of promises, big and small, but no worthwhile implementation plan accompanied it. The voters thought it wise not to trust mere words and threw their weight behind the NDA, which had a proven track record of performance over the past two decades.

INDIA bloc leader, RJD has to always contest its own image and allegations of ‘jungle raj’ (lawlessness or law of the jungle) – something which its opponents regularly bring up.

This time, the songs sung by children from the dais at RJD meetings about how they will brandish firearms and become extortionists and musclemen did not help. Prime Minister Narendra Modi seized the opportunity to attack it during his speeches. As the results show, it might have left a lasting impression on the psyche of the voters.