Super El Nino Could Lead To More Than 4.5 Lakh Heat Deaths Globally, Warns Climate Impact Lab Report

New Delhi : More than 4,51,000 people could die from extreme heat during the first half of the current "Super El Nino", according to a new Climate Impact Lab report released recently.

 

The projections highlight the scale of the health threat expected from unusually high temperatures and point to regions where immediate measures could help prevent tens of thousands of deaths.

 

The report estimates that global land temperatures could remain 1.2°C above normal in the coming months, with the current El Nino expected to continue through spring in the Northern Hemisphere. The unusually warm conditions are projected to bring 44 per cent more extremely hot days than would normally be expected.

 

For the next six months, from September 2026 to February 2027, the report projects about 2,39,000 heat-related deaths globally, with an uncertainty range of 11,000. It also warns that the total could rise further if El Nino persists through spring 2027 and above-average temperatures continue into June and July.

 

Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago, said, "We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome: death. As a result, we can now estimate that 4,51,000 people may die in the coming months due to El Nino. This is such a large number that it can be numbing. Still, it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbours, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives."

 

"This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months," Greenstone added.

The Global South is expected to face the largest impact. Nigeria is projected to record around 31,400 additional heat deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300, Sudan with 17,500, India with 15,800 and Brazil with 13,300 between September and February.

 

The report further mentioned that the timing of the impact will differ between countries. India and Brazil are projected to see 7,400 and 8,000 additional heat-related deaths respectively between December and February.

Moreover, heat-related deaths in India and Pakistan are expected to continue rising into their summer months beyond the six-month forecast period.

 

The Climate Impact Lab says targeted action could reduce deaths. Measures identified in its research include heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration stations, health outreach for vulnerable people, protections for outdoor workers and stronger healthcare capacity.The report describes the current extreme temperatures as a "postcard from the future", warning that similar conditions could become normal in the coming decades without greater investment in adaptation.